A Nobel Prize-winning economist has raised concerns about the ongoing fears regarding artificial intelligence (AI) potentially decimating the job market, suggesting that such worries could inadvertently lead to their own realization.
Robert Shiller, who earned the 2013 Nobel Prize in economics for his insights into asset prices, shared his thoughts in a guest essay published in The New York Times. He emphasized that the anxiety surrounding technological advancements is not a recent trend but rather a recurring theme throughout history.
Shiller noted that these fears date back to ancient times, recalling how even Aristotle envisioned inventions like a self-operating loom and a musical lyre that played on its own. In the 19th century, the Luddites, a group of English textile workers, actively destroyed machinery they feared would render them jobless.
He expressed concern that such historical anxieties are surfacing once more in the modern era. Shiller referenced a Quinnipiac survey from March indicating that 70% of respondents believe AI will lead to job losses. Additionally, a Pew Research Center study from June revealed that only 16% of Americans expect AI to have a beneficial effect on society in the next 20 years.
"Like many people, I believe AI could indeed decrease employment opportunities. However, I don't attribute this solely to the technology itself. My concern lies with the fear it is creating," he remarked.
Shiller explained, "Our cognitive processes are inherently influenced by narratives. The stories that circulate can significantly shape individual economic choices. When countless people base their decisions on negative forecasts, there’s a genuine possibility that this fear could manifest into reality."
Much of the adverse media discourse surrounding AI focuses on predictions regarding its impact on jobs and the economic landscape. In late May, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, stated to Axios that AI might eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within the next one to five years, potentially driving unemployment rates to as high as 20%. Though he emphasized uncertainty regarding the timeline, the current unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, a slight increase from 4% at the beginning of President Trump's tenure in January 2025.
Shiller argued that while the job market is experiencing a slowdown for various reasons, the pervasive panic about an AI-induced apocalypse is exacerbating the situation and contributing to dwindling consumer confidence.
He suggested that tech leaders like Amodei, who project dire future scenarios that their companies might help create, may be overlooking the broader implications of their statements. Shiller advocated for these leaders to temper their rhetoric to avert an economic downturn.
"Perhaps we should directly address the influential figures in Silicon Valley who vigorously promote these negative narratives," he wrote. "While drawing media attention to the formidable capabilities of your AI model might inflate sales, navigating a recession will pose far greater challenges. It’s essential not to forget the vital lessons history has imparted."
