While addressing the impact of technological shifts, it’s essential to recognize the human toll of such transitions. Historically, the Industrial Revolution improved living standards, but only after society faced the severe difficulties of harsh labor conditions in factories and the grim realities of overcrowded urban areas. Over the past few decades, the rise of automation and global outsourcing has led to a substantial drop in manufacturing jobs, putting many American families and communities, including those in Gary, Indiana, and Greenville, South Carolina, in challenging situations.
Yet, amidst these difficulties, I continually confront an important truth: the quality of life for the majority of Americans has seen significant improvements. When I entered the world in 1962, the typical American adult lacked air conditioning; however, as its cost has decreased, air conditioning has become commonplace. In the 1950s, computing power was largely confined to a few major corporations like IBM, whereas today, around 90 percent of American adults own a powerful supercomputer in their pockets. Life expectancy has also skyrocketed from just 32 years in 1900 to over 70 years today.
Moreover, job creation has outstripped population growth. Since 1962, civilian employment in the U.S. has surged by approximately 145 percent, compared to a 128 percent increase in the civilian population aged 16 and older. During this period, new industries have emerged, while others have diminished. Although the manufacturing sector has seen a decline from 15.5 million to 12.5 million jobs—largely due to a nearly two million job loss in textiles and apparel—the healthcare sector has flourished, now employing over 18 million individuals. The U.S. economy remains the most innovative, dynamic, and entrepreneurial across the globe.
While historical trends can be disrupted, I believe there are three compelling reasons to anticipate that the U.S. economy will maintain its renowned resilience and dynamism.
First, the prevalent fear that artificial intelligence will wipe out 25 percent of jobs is likely exaggerated. Instead, it’s probable that people will discover more efficient ways to use their time. I recall my early days as a banking analyst when compiling a basic graph of stock performance required six hours of sifting through old copies of The Wall Street Journal on microfiche. Nowadays, a new analyst can generate that same graph in mere seconds, all while we’ve seen employment numbers grow in recent years. As our tools become more advanced, the nature of our work tends to evolve, leading to increased complexity. Despite the conveniences offered by platforms like Excel, email, or Zoom, do we genuinely feel less busy today?
