Act quickly: an analyst who accurately predicted NVIDIA's potential back in 2010 has just revealed his top ten AI stock picks—surprisingly, Microsoft is not included. You can access this information for free today.
The dynamics of the current market indicate that the first company to file for public offering sets the accounting benchmarks that Wall Street will follow for all AI entities, making the timing of IPOs a significant strategic play within the sector.
During a segment on CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime on Thursday, attention turned to a pressing question that resonates with all AI investors: when will OpenAI and Anthropic cease their pretense of wanting to remain private?
The reporters introduced a timeline driven largely by revenue performance. Anthropic's revenue has surged nearly fourfold compared to last year, while OpenAI has doubled its financial run rate over the same time frame.
Analyst Kate Luria emphasized that these growth rates represent a peak intensity that will not last. Market sentiment supports this; data from Polymarket assigns a 77% chance that Anthropic will go public by December 31, 2026, whereas OpenAI is given a 23.5% likelihood of doing so within the same timeframe. For many investors, proxy companies will be the avenue for trading these developments for the present.
The significance of these growth rates cannot be overstated. Luria indicates a quadrupling of revenue creates an appealing narrative for investors, while a 60% increase from a larger base requires justification for any slowdown, which can negatively impact valuations.
Anthropic quietly submitted its draft S-1 on June 1, 2026, following a substantial $65 billion funding round that positioned them at a valuation of $965 billion. OpenAI followed suit with its own confidential S-1 on June 8, aiming for an impressive $1 trillion valuation. Being the first to go public has implications that extend beyond mere timing; it establishes the GAAP accounting standards that analysts will employ to scrutinize the entire sector. Consequently, the second company to list will find itself defending definitions and valuations set by the leader.
Additionally, OpenAI faces the challenge of being the bigger investor, contributing to $3.1 billion in losses recorded on Microsoft’s balance sheet for Q1 FY2026 alone.
The competitive threat from major players in the tech space is also significant. PitchBook's Harrison Rolfe pointed out that companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon possess the leverage to potentially undercut both OpenAI and Anthropic on pricing, while simultaneously offering a reliable means to gain exposure in the developing AI landscape.
Microsoft owns a 27% share of OpenAI, valued at around $135 billion, and OpenAI has a contractual obligation for an additional $250 billion in services from Azure. CEO Satya Nadella highlighted that AI revenue has surpassed a $37 billion annual run rate, reflecting a 123% year-on-year increase according to their latest 10-Q filing.
However, Microsoft shares have declined 22% this year, with retail traders speculating whether "Satya and Zuckerberg are incinerating [more] capital."
In the first quarter of 2026, Amazon reported $16.8 billion in pre-tax income from its stake in Anthropic and projected around $200 billion in capital expenditures for the year. Alphabet, a co-investor in Anthropic, is also competing with its Gemini project, which helps clarify why its cloud backlog has surpassed $460 billion. NVIDIA is benefitting from the rise of these giants, with its data center revenue hitting $75.25 billion, a robust increase of 92% year-over-year.
During the Thursday segment, the host cautioned viewers about the potential pitfalls of chasing an IPO surge, comparing it to the "super aggressive" valuation of SpaceX, which has since leveled off. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly allocating shares for retail investors, but matching the hype associated with Elon Musk is a significant challenge for leaders like Sam Altman and Dario Amodei.
This sets the stage for platforms like Webull and similar retail options, which recently introduced single-company Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) for accredited investors seeking pre-IPO opportunities. However, the market is still resilient, with shares down 19% this year.
The driving force behind these impending IPOs is competitive more than financial. Both companies have sufficient capital; what they are hesitant about is allowing the other to file first. The timing of these submissions will influence the valuation metrics for all private AI startups still in fundraising mode.
If Anthropic goes public first with its impressive revenue growth narrative, it could redefine benchmarks for every Series E funding round. Conversely, should OpenAI lead with its larger revenue figures and more substantial capital investment, discussions will shift toward scalability and the sustainability of its partnership with Microsoft. Whichever company takes the initiative will impact the relevant public comparables that are already in the market.
Keep an eye on prospectus amendments as the fall approaches, and watch to see if Polymarket’s predictions regarding OpenAI's potential IPO by the end of the year start to shift when bankers release timelines during August earnings calls. Also, monitor the capital expenditure projections from tech giants in the upcoming reports, as any signs of reduced spending from Microsoft or Amazon could signal concerns for IPO skeptics.
