The concerns surrounding job losses due to artificial intelligence (AI) have subsided in recent months after reaching alarming levels earlier this spring. According to Goldman Sachs, the anticipated layoffs might be on hold as the economy braces for a potential recession.
Joseph Briggs, an economist at Goldman Sachs, noted in a recent publication that worries about AI-triggered job displacement have diminished significantly. He projected that while AI could eventually enhance productivity by 15% across the U.S. and other advanced economies, we may see up to 9% of the workforce affected during the transition to AI. This, he explained, combines with a slower pace of hiring that could further impact employment levels by an additional 3%. Essentially, this translates to approximately one in eleven workers potentially facing job displacement.
A crucial aspect of this forecast is the timing. By revisiting historical data on technological impact on employment, Briggs observed that disruptions related to automation tend to be less pronounced when the economy is thriving, but they tend to increase during economic downturns. He emphasized the possibility that AI-related disruptions might exacerbate the cyclical nature of economic activity.
This notion has been reinforced by various analyses from Goldman Sachs over the past year. In October 2025, economists David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei suggested that “jobless growth” might become the norm, where economic growth occurs simultaneously with sluggish job creation. They warned that the full ramifications of AI on the labor market might not become evident until a recession is evident.
Briggs corroborated this idea, stating that automation and labor interruptions would likely align with economic cycles. He highlighted a historical trend where periods of economic decline tend to see increased automation as companies look to restructure and reduce labor expenses.
Looking deeper into the matter, Briggs noted that labor market disruptions are more pronounced in unfavorable economic conditions. Automation linked to technological advancements correlates with increases in unemployment rates, with studies showing an increased job loss rate when the unemployment figures are rising.
In his latest assessment, Briggs increased his estimate of the potential job displacement caused by AI from a previously projected 6% to 7% to a more significant 9%, equating to approximately 15 million workers over the next decade. He elaborated that although the narrative surrounding AI employment might sound alarming, the effects would likely be transient, suggesting that any yearly increase in unemployment would remain below one percentage point.
Despite the significant implications of AI on the job market, the urgency surrounding layoffs has quieted for now. Recent metrics indicate that AI-related layoffs have decreased sharply since their peak in the spring, and anecdotal reports from various sectors hint at a subtle shift in hiring patterns. While some industries tied to AI have witnessed a decrease in job growth, brisk hiring in AI-focused infrastructure has somewhat balanced the scales.
Even some of the most vocal critics of AI-related job losses have tempered their rhetoric. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, who previously claimed that AI may wipe out half of all entry-level jobs, has since acknowledged the complexities introduced by AI. He referred to the Jevons paradox, highlighting how automation could allow the remaining tasks to become more productive, albeit with significant caveats regarding the rapid advancement of AI technologies.
Briggs noted that it's still early in the integration of AI into workplace practices, as only a fraction of U.S. businesses have fully adopted these technologies. Thus far, the overall economy has remained robust, which could have lessened the urgency for companies to make drastic cuts to their labor forces despite projections indicating considerable job losses ahead.
