In 2031, tensions between the United States and China are projected to fragment Europe significantly.
The US has invested heavily in data centers, whereas the European Union has lagged behind in this critical area. While American firms have revamped their operations to integrate artificial intelligence, leading to widespread layoffs, European workers have tended to embrace a more relaxed approach, often delegating tasks to the AI model known as Claude and taking extended breaks.
Now, Europe is facing dire economic consequences due to its lack of native AI development. Populism is on the rise, the euro is under pressure, and cyberattacks are wreaking havoc on EU businesses. The aftermath of Brexit seems more severe, compounding the crisis within the European Union.
This grim scenario is the crux of a thought experiment titled Europe 2031, created by a think tank based in Brussels and released just a day before the Trump administration imposed restrictions on “foreign nationals” utilizing the highly publicized AI model, Fable, developed by Anthropic.
Following a dynamic week of G7 discussions, this speculative narrative has gained traction, igniting urgent talks about EU tech independence. European parliament members have reviewed the document, and its authors report that it sparked debates in recent discussions between British and German officials.
The creators of this scenario feel they have been “vindicated” by the attention it has garnered, especially since their prediction of the US restricting access to advanced AI systems has seemingly materialized. Their hope is that this narrative will encourage Europe to quickly pivot its approach to AI.
This piece is part of a growing trend of fictional AI crisis scenarios written by lesser-known authors but which have gained surprising influence in policy circles over the past year. Previous scenarios have included one in 2025 depicting a future where superintelligent AI eradicates humanity and another from February that foresaw AI radically transforming the US economy.
However, some uncertainties exist, as these thought experiments sometimes hinge on unpredictable developments in AI.
Maximilian Negele, a contributor to Europe 2031, shares that he became involved due to the significant disconnect between Brussels and the Silicon Valley where much of AI innovation is occurring. A seasoned traveler to San Francisco, he parallels the rapid advancements there with what he views as a slow decline in Europe.
The scenario is presented through the lens of a fictional Brussels staffer, Caroline Dubois, who visits her friend Christian Vogt, an entrepreneur in San Francisco. She is taken aback by the relentless work culture and the strong belief among tech enthusiasts in imminent groundbreaking changes.
Upon returning to her European responsibilities, Caroline tries to persuade her skeptical colleagues about the looming AI revolution but finds much resistance, as many dismiss AI as a mere fad.
As the narrative progresses, American investments in AI soar, highlighting real-life multi-billion dollar agreements involving major players like OpenAI and Nvidia, while Europeans respond with a tepid investment strategy, largely ignoring the need for a comprehensive regulatory framework for data center providers.
Consequently, the US comes to dominate around 70% of global computing resources essential for AI development, while Europe's industries struggle due to their slow adoption of AI technologies.
With the rise of AI-driven cyberattacks and increasing unemployment in Europe, EU officials attempt to leverage their critical asset — the Dutch lithography firm ASML, crucial for semiconductor production — to negotiate favorable terms with both Beijing and Washington. However, their efforts come too late; the US employs powerful "frontier AI" surveillance tools, uncovering the deepest concerns and secrets of EU leaders.
As the curtain falls, Caroline and Christian exit for a drink, with ominous implications lurking just beneath the surface.
Critics may note that some of the monumental deals referenced in the scenario, such as the $100 billion agreement between OpenAI and Nvidia, have already unraveled, and similar doubts surround other proposed investments.
However, the authors remain optimistic and counter potential objections by suggesting that even the European officials share those concerns but still end up making critical miscalculations.
Negele comments, "I can’t rule out that a few AI companies may face bankruptcy, yet our aim was to convey a vision of potential outcomes."
He and co-author Alex Petropolous concede there could be hindrances along the way, particularly rising opposition to data centers in the US, as public sentiment increasingly turns against AI and the environmental impact of large data operations.
The main organization behind this thought experiment, the Arq Foundation based in Brussels, presents itself as neither a lobbying entity nor a commercial startup, keeping its funding sources undisclosed.
Influential figures in Brussels recognize that the story encapsulates the urgent need for Europe to achieve technological sovereignty. Nicolás Casares, an MEP from Spain, acknowledges this narrative as a wake-up call, emphasizing the necessity for the EU to grapple with who is developing its AI infrastructure and the implications of this reliance.
He questions the real benefits of hosting data centers for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic in Europe, suggesting that Europe risks creating assets that could be controlled by external forces, potentially restricting access to the very technologies vital for its future success.
